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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1754

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 28 20:55:48 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 282055
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 282055=20
    IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-282230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1754
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0355 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of eastern NE into IA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 282055Z - 282230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...The risk of severe storms should increase during the next
    couple of hours. A watch may eventually be needed for parts of the
    area.

    DISCUSSION...Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (upper 70s to
    near 80s surface dewpoints) beneath a plume of steep midlevel lapse
    rates is underway from parts of eastern NE into IA -- along and
    south of a WSW/ENE-oriented stationary boundary. Over parts of
    eastern NE, gradually deepening boundary-layer cumulus suggests
    isolated convective initiation is possible during the next hour or
    two. Farther east, cumulus development remains shallow -- suggesting
    lingering inhibition at the base of the EML.=20

    Continued heating and eroding inhibition in the vicinity of the
    stationary boundary should support isolated thunderstorm development
    in the next couple of hours, and 40-50 kt of effective shear will
    support discrete/semi-discrete supercells given the extremely
    unstable surface-based instability. The primary concerns will very
    large hail and severe gusts. Generally weak large-scale ascent and
    the lingering inhibition casts uncertainty on storm coverage, though
    trends are being monitored for a possible watch this afternoon.

    ..Weinman/Thompson.. 07/28/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6X0K6Ox-AeLd0sDJL7Y19ucOofSGdMeY8wDyhIjlG0WkH5WLedDqKxJDIY3bVX-vQcsmrdo3i= UK6PIi3pB6asnuCtFU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

    LAT...LON 41599899 42159834 43209639 43469416 43339194 42039214
    41439624 40649797 40839888 41599899=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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