ACUS11 KWNS 282023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282023=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-282200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1753
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Areas affected...Parts of southeast/east-central MN and western WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 282023Z - 282200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing severe-storm
potential this afternoon. A watch is possible for parts of the area.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing along a northeast/southwest-oriented cold front draped across parts of
central MN. Continued frontal ascent and differential heating should
aid in additional thunderstorm development given eroding inhibition
within the pre-convective environment. While weak
north-northeasterly low-level flow casts uncertainty on storm
maintenance with eastward extent (away from the cold
front/differential heating zone), 40-50 kt midlevel winds and steep
lapse rates (per 20Z observed MPX sounding) will support supercell
structures capable of large hail and locally damaging winds.
Convective evolution and coverage of severe storms is unclear,
though trends are being monitored for a possible watch.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 07/28/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7To-Ti8aqBuS7vnMg3p7Y4KADuGtTBDMieYhyz-YvxAoMVPnChduAVEJsBRg-Yup-HBD8L0yM= oBlU8e3ARpm7aHW-30$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 44429488 45249476 45749438 45979397 46109352 46099256
45879189 45389158 44819157 44339169 43849202 43629244
43569311 43659408 43929470 44429488=20


=3D =3D =3D
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