ACUS11 KWNS 281904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281904=20
MEZ000-282130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1750
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0204 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Areas affected...Parts of central/northern ME

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 281904Z - 282130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind will be
possible later this afternoon into the evening.

DISCUSSION...Cumulus and deepening convective showers are increasing
this afternoon across parts of northern Maine, with ongoing
thunderstorms noted across southeast Quebec and northwest New
Brunswick. Modest heating of a moist environment has resulted in
MLCAPE increasing to near 1000 J/kg, with some further increase
possible into late afternoon. Storm coverage is expected to increase
with time across northern and eventually central Maine, as a
shortwave mid/upper-level trough moves across Quebec.=20

Midlevel lapse rates are expected to remain quite weak (generally
less than 6 C/km, as noted on the 18Z CAR sounding) across the
region, so it may take some time for developing storms to mature.
Rather strong midlevel southwesterlies are supporting effective
shear of 40-50 kt (also noted on the 18Z CAR sounding), which will
support the potential for a couple supercells and/or organized
clusters later this afternoon into the evening. Damaging wind will
be the most likely hazard, but at this time the threat is expected
to be somewhat localized, rendering watch issuance unlikely.

..Dean/Thompson.. 07/28/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_pM7S-75WZtGeauWsz8wZdFg2Ph8azolUKz-sr45pzcaGQa4-ecAMyMkGkE6r4QAAng1ihtr7= kd1veI4HZDTuKKlf7o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON 47546919 47506807 46956748 45966733 45506738 45047096
46777016 47546919=20


=3D =3D =3D
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