ACUS11 KWNS 281755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281754=20
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-282000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1749
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Areas affected...Eastern WV...MD...central/northern VA...DC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 281754Z - 282000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storm development is expected later this afternoon, with
localized damaging wind possible.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating is underway this afternoon from the
central Appalachians into the Mid Atlantic region, with zones of
increasing cumulus noted from south-central PA into northern VA.
Continued heating will remove MLCINH with time, and scattered
thunderstorm development is expected later this afternoon. Initial
development will be possible near the higher terrain, and
potentially in the vicinity of a weak and compact MCV currently
approaching western VA from eastern WV.=20

Deep-layer flow/shear will generally remain weak across the region.
However, weak low/midlevel westerlies may support a couple of
eastward-moving, outflow-driven clusters later this afternoon. Steep
low-level lapse rates and relatively large DCAPE will support
localized damaging wind potential, even with somewhat disorganized convection.=20

Watch issuance is considered unlikely, though may become possible if
short-term trends support more of an organized threat than currently anticipated.

..Dean/Thompson.. 07/28/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_5ZGB9sU-DdJKBkffTTcB4XMxqeckW4UYaa7KEXdieNso2xlAj_A3U7N93GPBAV72ze1cGCmw= hVRANjhhAthVQW1mVk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...

LAT...LON 38158018 39227854 39647802 39677688 39617655 39517651
38887636 38307634 37977692 37797759 37737806 37637877
37707920 38158018=20


=3D =3D =3D
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