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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1748

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 28 16:35:48 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 281635
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 281635=20
    PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-281800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1748
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1135 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

    Areas affected...Central/eastern OH into northeast KY and western
    WV/PA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 281635Z - 281800Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated damaging-wind threat may spread eastward this
    afternoon. Watch issuance is possible, depending on trends regarding
    storm organization.

    DISCUSSION...Convection has continued to regenerate along the
    outflow associated with a long-lived storm cluster and MCV through
    the morning. These storms have generally been subsevere over the
    last several hours, though a small inflection in the line and some
    rotation have recently been noted southwest of Columbus. An
    additional uptick in storm intensity will be possible this
    afternoon, as diurnal heating of a moist environment results in
    MLCAPE increasing above 2000 J/kg.

    Wind profiles ahead of the convective line (as noted in VWPs from
    CLE and CMH) are rather weak, though the ILN VWP suggests that
    somewhat stronger flow (30-40 kt in the 1-3 km layer) resides near
    and behind the line. Some threat for isolated damaging wind will
    likely persist this afternoon given the rather favorable
    thermodynamic environment, but uncertainty remains regarding how
    organized the threat will be this afternoon, given the rather weak
    background flow/shear. If an increase in storm organization is noted
    early this afternoon, then watch issuance will become possible.

    ..Dean/Thompson.. 07/28/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Er-606eGoTfXHqxJJc3aQH2TDRzdtRdl1gg3IVWZybSoUJj8LgQVHe_phhbSB1yoNxw-eokw= tEqY03OsURxa9hpdyM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...

    LAT...LON 38248435 40358321 41438250 41918090 41998036 40338044
    39448083 38498146 37938223 37748251 37618330 37978414
    38248435=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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