ACUS11 KWNS 281100
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281059=20
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-281300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1747
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0559 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

Areas affected...Northern Indiana...Far Southwest Lower
Michigan...Northwest Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 281059Z - 281300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage threat will likely continue for a
couple more hours across northern Indiana, and may affect northwest
Ohio later this morning. Weather watch issuance appears conditional.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Fort
Wayne, Indiana shows a line segment in far northwest Indiana
extending into southwest Lower Michigan. Another small but strong
cluster of storms is ongoing in western Indiana. These two areas of
storms are located on the northern edge of a pocket of moderate
instability, where the RAP is estimating MUCAPE in the 2000 to 3000
J/kg range. The storms are expected to move east-southeastward along
a gradient of instability into northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio
over the next couple of hours. RAP forecast soundings in this area
have effective shear near 30 knots, and CAPE with large lifted
indices. This environment should support a continued wind-damage
threat with the stronger multicell line segments. Weather watch
issuance will be considered if it appears that a substantial cold
pool or more solid MCS is starting to organize.

..Broyles/Edwards.. 07/28/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4DMBht7EBZBnx5BUSUP9NRfjRvyGTuVRm8Gk6JI-xFuKwPv-4_IQCI1ll5kkuH634PZ5Axc4E= -gMaW8KVa6Cilu-rWU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

LAT...LON 40308417 39958497 39978584 40158690 40298732 40718769
41258753 41798706 42098639 42008491 41468391 40308417=20


=3D =3D =3D
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