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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1746

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 28 07:53:47 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 280753
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 280752=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-280945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1746
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0252 AM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023

    Areas affected...Far Southeast Wisconsin...Northeast
    Illinois...Northwest Indiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 280752Z - 280945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage threat will likely continue for a
    couple more hours across northeast Illinois and may impact
    northwestern Indiana as well. However, the threat is expected to be
    too marginal for weather watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Chicago shows a
    convective line over northern Illinois, moving eastward at about 35
    knots. This line is located along the northern edge of an axis of
    moderate instability, where MUCAPE is estimated by the RAP to be
    near 4000 J/kg. This, along with lift associated with a shortwave
    trough (evident on water vapor imagery) will support continued
    convective development. An isolated wind-damage threat will likely
    exist along the leading edge of the line. As the line moves eastward
    toward the Chicago Metro over the next hours, an outflow boundary
    will move southward across far northeastern Illinois. This outflow
    boundary should move through the northern and central Chicago Metro
    before the convection impacts the area. This, along with weak
    low-level lapse rates and increasing MLCIN (evident on RAP forecast
    soundings), could temper the wind-damage threat some. Due to these
    reasons, weather watch issuance appears unlikely.

    ..Broyles/Edwards.. 07/28/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8lSFHS6u6f4iub6ijwZDvXd33Jp17aK-YVxlPkKwg5LyzoEsjrNTJpopPoZhJHBC9TQ0X4Syd= 05vY--egQw5MXvIdww$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 42678858 42638904 42278923 41638925 40848902 40308818
    40258729 40488661 40928645 41358665 42368782 42528813
    42678858=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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