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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1742

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 27 21:37:39 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 272137
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272136=20
    MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-272300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1742
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0436 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern MN into northern/central WI and
    the U.P. of MI

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 554...

    Valid 272136Z - 272300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 554
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and damaging winds will likely
    spread eastward over the next couple of hours. Downstream watch
    issuance will likely be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells are ongoing this afternoon across
    parts of northwestern WI and east-central MN. Multiple measured
    severe hail reports of 1 to 2 inches have occurred with this
    activity. Recent radar trends show some updraft interactions, and
    the beginning stages of clustering/upscale growth may continue.
    Regardless, a continued threat for large to very large hail will
    persist in the short term, as strong instability (3000-3500+ J/kg of
    MLCAPE) and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear prove favorable for robust
    updrafts. A tornado also appears possible in the short term as well,
    mainly across northwestern WI where low-level shear is maximized in
    the presence of ongoing supercells. The threat for severe/damaging
    winds will likely increase this evening as thunderstorm clusters
    move eastward across northern/central WI and the U.P. of MI. The
    eastern extent of the severe threat remains somewhat unclear, as
    less instability is present towards Lake Michigan. Still, downstream
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will likely be required for the
    increasing hail/wind threat.

    ..Gleason/Grams.. 07/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-FZXb6_wVdjytW-eZ74wVEi5pmJoqmK368Z9KdZCQXeCmYgm_jCNRXQQdtsH1MkN0BV_2jwvb= W6IUbRokW0Ko79WHvw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

    LAT...LON 45399286 46119335 46859154 46878924 46508761 46018731
    45228747 44478816 44459035 44729160 45399286=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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