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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1738

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 27 18:47:39 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 271847
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271847=20
    WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-271945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1738
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0147 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

    Areas affected...central/southern Minnesota...northern
    Wisconsin...far western northern Michigan Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 271847Z - 271945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Damaging wind and large hail threat increasing. A watch
    will likely be needed in the next hour.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows agitated cumulus development
    along a pseudo warm front/stationary front boundary across central
    Minnesota amid dew points in the mid 70s to 80s. Potential for
    earlier storm development than advertised in morning CAM guidance is
    possible. Surface objective analysis indicates the mid-level CAP has
    weakened, with MLCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg across central Minnesota
    into Wisconsin and the Upper Michigan Peninsula. Deep layer shear
    around 40-50 kts in association with enhanced mid to upper level
    flow is noted across much of Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.
    Initial cell development is likely to include a few discrete
    supercells, capable of very large hail (some instances 2+ in) and
    damaging wind. Through the late afternoon/early evening, discrete
    cells that can track along the warm front may pose a risk of a
    tornado as well. Storms will likely attempt upscale growth as the
    front sags southward through the evening. Potential for damaging
    winds will increase. A watch will likely be needed within the next
    hour.

    ..Thornton/Hart.. 07/27/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8R29Rfx12U2-c13krbo6jOOmvkjjkfkzXzQUdIB3J-951V9jh6978AV8GuZdIsEuYaPSFUXv2= QttvN5s6Uwd4Griy_c$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...

    LAT...LON 46479538 46749485 46969421 47099365 47289286 47319226
    47329189 47259117 47119036 46928979 46608944 46148906
    45638898 45248914 44898936 44908954 45069089 45199206
    45209334 45249447 45489588 46479538=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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