ACUS11 KWNS 271540
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271540=20 RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-271745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1737
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1040 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

Areas affected...Parts of the northern Mid Atlantic into the
Northeast and southern New England

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 271540Z - 271745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for thunderstorm wind damage will increase this
afternoon. Watch issuance is likely for parts of the region.

DISCUSSION...Late morning visible satellite imagery depicts broken
cloudiness from the Mid Atlantic into southern New England, with
rather strong heating underway where stronger insolation is
occurring. Despite weak midlevel lapse rates (as noted on regional
morning soundings), continued heating of a richly moist boundary
layer will result in moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE potentially
exceeding 2000 J/kg later this afternoon. While large-scale ascent
will likely be weaker compared to areas farther northeast, continued
weakening of MLCINH should allow scattered thunderstorm development
with time this afternoon.=20

Deep-layer shear also drops off with southward extent, but moderate southwesterly low/midlevel flow should help organize a few stronger
storm clusters capable of damaging wind gusts, especially across
areas where stronger pre-convective heating occurs. While timing of
robust storm development remains somewhat uncertain, and may tend to
be later with southward extent, watch issuance will become
increasingly likely by early afternoon across parts of the area.

..Dean/Hart.. 07/27/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6ahUyLCksNgy0WeYWvS9uMoccvMUnpOHVU_QRyJf13x8hcQYIk8HpoQVd2bCBXWoPu3PPH-Of= CVPZpNNNg4__ccX9qI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 39717792 41977667 42647597 42857447 42247443 41767416
41507331 41687165 41097161 40817271 40397383 39657409
39077481 39277766 39717792=20


=3D =3D =3D
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