ACUS11 KWNS 270554
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270553=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-270800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1735
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

Areas affected...Southeast ND...Northern MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 270553Z - 270800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail and/or damaging gusts possible for the next
few hours across far southeast ND and northern MN.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of strong to occasionally severe
thunderstorms has developed amid warm-air advection, within the warm
sector, ahead of a weak cold front. Environment throughout this warm
sector is characterized by stable low levels, but steep mid-level
lapse rates and modest mid-level moisture supporting elevated
storms. Forecast soundings suggest these storms are likely based
between 850 and 700 mb. Mesoanalysis estimates MUCAPE is around
2500-3000 J/kg, with effective shear near 40 kt. These environmental
conditions support organized updrafts capable of hail, and a few
supercells have already developed across the region.=20

Dry low to mid-levels will likely impact storm longevity as they
move east of the primary warm-air advection zone. These conditions
favor a more outflow-dominant storm structure with eastern extent.
Despite low-level stability, there is still some chance for a few
stronger surface gusts, particularly if cold pools within the
cluster can amalgamate. Any gusts will likely remain below severe
thresholds.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 07/27/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6y1NpJfsOuO1DKlOeOhLjOwMZxWpHcNhCyh_Cq5aOxcsbDBy_kf2nII7RIp_HRAqmgzHOHchK= zzUuzpMD8hb4qmJh7M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 48629450 48719399 48649335 48349254 47699230 46999285
46299409 46019584 46559820 47889609 48629450=20


=3D =3D =3D
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