ACUS11 KWNS 270157
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270157=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-270330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1734
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0857 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023

Areas affected...portions of northwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 270157Z - 270330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A short-lived organized severe wind threat should
accompany an MCS for a couple of hours. Given the short-lived nature
of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A small MCS has organized along the CO/KS border,
supported by a strong cold pool (per latest surface observations)
and strong surface-10 kft rear inflow (per KGLD inbound velocities).
The ambient environment can be characterized by steep surface-500 mb
lapse rates and a dry boundary layer (when subjectively
interpolating between the 00Z DDC and LBF observed soundings), with
over 35 kts of line-normal effective bulk shear (per 00z
mesoanalysis). This ambient environment will support continued
severe gusts while the boundary layer remains coupled/well-mixed.
However, decoupling associated with nocturnal cooling should temper
the severe threat to a degree in the next couple of hours, so the
organized severe wind threat is expected to be short-lived. As such,
a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is not currently anticipated.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 07/27/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5fqqoGYs_AlnWtVrhWztNcrxZN1n4yqoMxuopHdCPJQ3ayw0nKHBsgJ_IchK5MQWOPE8zYRZU= 5GWXVdyPfOLRcslwWU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...GLD...

LAT...LON 39580230 40040216 40160154 40120039 39849964 39459953
39229991 39290061 39400191 39580230=20


=3D =3D =3D
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