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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1731

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 26 21:31:32 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 262131
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262131=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-262300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1731
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0431 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023

    Areas affected...portions of central North Dakota...South
    Dakota...and Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 262131Z - 262300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A risk for isolated severe gusts/hail exists this
    afternoon with the stronger storms that can sustain themselves. A WW
    issuance is not currently anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating and broad surface lee
    troughing is supporting the development of isolated, high-based
    supercells across the northern Plains. 100 F surface temperatures
    amid low 50s-60s F dewpoints (40-50 F T/Td spreads) preceding the
    supercells are contributing to 9+ C/km boundary-layer lapse rates.
    While 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates and 40+ kts of effective bulk
    shear (driven by elongated hodographs) suggest that mid-level
    updraft rotation and hail potential exists, the deep and hot
    boundary layer may promote sufficient melting of hail as well as
    evaporation of rain to support a severe gust threat through the
    remainder of the afternoon. Given the isolated nature of the storms
    and their severe threat, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not
    currently expected.

    ..Squitieri/Grams.. 07/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7xF1-MTpu5QoD_vOoSry1EP2FZ7LJ-rqHTLMXmSUVdfz_yJ4DctXBMqusV1PgZqOVOJUSmwlD= yeooj7Jcl-LON0ntZY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...BIS...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 40540075 44300160 46410163 47560055 47700001 47279933
    46529886 45329848 43919845 42499860 41539886 40889919
    40429954 40540075=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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