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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1730

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 26 20:57:32 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 262057
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262057=20
    INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-262200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1730
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0357 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023

    Areas affected...northeastern Illinois...northern Indiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 262057Z - 262200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Conditional severe threat over the next 1-2 hours. Area is
    being monitored for watch potential.

    DISCUSSION...A conditional severe threat will be possible this
    afternoon across the Chicago Metro into northern Indiana. A remnant
    outflow boundary located across the northern Chicago metro into
    northern Indiana may be the focus of potential development of
    supercells this afternoon. The air mass has seen some recovery after
    morning convection but mid-level capping remains, as observed from
    ACARS soundings out of the Chicago-Midway Airport. A vort max is
    moving swiftly over Lake Michigan. Visible satellite has shown a
    persistent cu field with some agitation noted in the last hour to
    hour and half which may indicate some weakening in the cap.
    Satellite also shows drier mid-level air is moving in from the west
    with evidence of mixing. Confidence in development remains low at
    this time, given time of day and the quick movement of the vort max.
    However, should supercells develop and track along the boundary,
    strong deep layer shear does support a conditional risk severe
    storms including tornadoes. Trends in this area are be monitored
    closely for watch potential.

    ..Thornton/Hart.. 07/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7u3D0xN49UPUaDSQjKIg3nxm732bDT4ekMQTu1WC4yZ1FFR33bPA-_OXMCoZJ13C3eIodWmw8= tBkVCq-37grpcw8HYM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...

    LAT...LON 42058619 41868603 41748599 41538604 41308615 41198653
    41138689 41148730 41208758 41408795 41838812 41988816
    42138818 42318821 42418822 42478802 42448780 42408770
    42278739 42058619=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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