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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1728

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 26 20:36:31 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 262036
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 262035=20
    PAZ000-OHZ000-262200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1728
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0335 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023

    Areas affected...North-central/northeast OH into northwest PA...Lake
    Erie

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 551...

    Valid 262035Z - 262200Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 551
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado
    will spread eastward into this evening. Watch expansion or new watch
    issuance into far northeast OH and northwest PA is possible.

    DISCUSSION...The southern portion of a QLCS that recently produced
    measured severe gusts near Detroit has recently intensified across
    northwest OH and adjacent portions of Lake Erie. While deep-layer
    flow/shear is not quite as strong compared to areas farther
    north/west, a favorable thermodynamic environment will support
    maintenance of this QLCS over the next 1-2 hours, as storms move
    into an environment characterized by warm temperatures and
    relatively steep low-level lapse rates (away from the lake), and
    low-level moisture increases from the southwest.=20

    The most organized portion of the QLCS may continue moving across
    southern Lake Erie and adjacent lakeshore areas, though some threat
    will extend farther south as well. Damaging winds will remain the
    most likely hazard, though modest low-level shear/SRH may also
    support a brief tornado with any stronger line-embedded
    circulations.=20

    Some threat may approach the eastern edge of WW 551 into far
    northeast OH and northwest PA by early evening. This may necessitate
    local watch expansion or new watch issuance, depending on short-term
    trends regarding downstream destabilization.

    ..Dean.. 07/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4rrVlU5nj56UqGt0ngITd_fiVGtM7xsWArFtkcne9g3GuX8WLkeoVeNqWyiamf2YPWRB4FHus= 74wWbLQSlL3dwJYll0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CLE...

    LAT...LON 42008274 42608113 42598053 42448007 42177989 41818006
    41608063 41228144 41158206 41098265 41088308 41098321
    41378317 42008274=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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