ACUS11 KWNS 261914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261914=20
OHZ000-MIZ000-262045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1727
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023

Areas affected...Southeast lower MI into northwest OH

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 551...

Valid 261914Z - 262045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 551
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado
will continue and perhaps increase into late afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A QLCS has recently intensified from southeast lower MI
into northwest OH, with embedded bowing segments noted southwest of
Detroit and west of Toledo. The 18Z DTX sounding was rather
favorable for organized convection, with MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg (when
modified for current observations) and effective shear of around 40
kt. With steepening low-level lapse rates and the well-organized
character of the ongoing QLCS, the damaging-wind threat may increase
with time until the system moves through the area. Also, while
surface winds may tend to veer with time, a reasonably strong
southwest low-level jet (as noted on the 18Z DTX sounding and recent
DTX VWPs) will support sufficient low-level shear/SRH for a brief
tornado threat with line-embedded circulations.

..Dean.. 07/26/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5tKyXB-ai3uL35wyKjoK-7-Pbx336RZqO5R4w7CE4kUgCCG4EMmiET2xb0NZZKO8dIyl20Hph= xi_mIJpXxMSvw9zIgI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...

LAT...LON 42548394 42868380 42878290 42368293 41878291 41438283
41138310 41118383 41168413 41208439 41478427 41778401
42138379 42548394=20


=3D =3D =3D
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