ACUS11 KWNS 261745
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261745=20
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-261915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1726
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023

Areas affected...Southeast lower MI into northwest OH and far
northeast IN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 261745Z - 261915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Watch issuance is likely soon, as a damaging-wind threat
spreads east-southeastward.

DISCUSSION...A complex convective scenario is evident from southeast
lower MI into northwest OH and northeast IN this afternoon. A
loosely organized QLCS has evolved from earlier bowing clusters
across southwest lower MI and northern IN. A well-organized elevated
bowing cluster is also moving east of Milwaukee over southern lake
Michigan, in the immediate wake of the earlier clusters. The
trailing bow is associated with the primary mid/upper-level
shortwave trough moving quickly eastward across WI.

While convection has persisted and even slightly intensified along
the gust front associated with the leading QLCS, storms have thus
far struggled to attain severe intensity as they move east of the
more favorable instability corridor. However, strong heating across
northwest OH into southeast lower MI will eventually result in
moderate destabilization ahead of the ongoing storms, with MLCAPE
potentially increasing to near or above 2000 J/kg. Deep-layer shear
is stronger farther west in association with the primary shortwave
trough, but some increase is expected through the afternoon, with
the shortwave moving eastward at a faster rate than the leading
convection.=20

While the evolution of ongoing storms in uncertain and may be rather
complex, the environment will become increasingly favorable for an
organized damaging-wind threat into southeast lower MI and northwest
OH later this afternoon, and watch issuance is likely soon.

..Dean/Hart.. 07/26/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7-3aB6vVQ9SWkQr88FudxFVBemGoN3FqAAAd0JIRkgpoxRm85JEFiyiXzfN226oy819G1eDMl= GLLQW__NMrkJBgfGl8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON 44118353 43868201 42708255 42278258 41978268 41708269
41648249 41178238 40638246 40518387 40348457 40388521
40488554 40928540 41448529 41958440 42358417 43168401
44118353=20


=3D =3D =3D
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