ACUS11 KWNS 261659
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261659=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-261900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1725
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023

Areas affected...eastern Missouri and western Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 261659Z - 261900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms capable of isolated large hail and damaging wind
possible through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms development has been ongoing across
eastern Missouri/west-central Illinois along a surface trough.
Mid-level capping remains strong across this region, likely keeping
storms rooted above the surface. Temperatures have warmed into the
upper 80s to 90s, with dew points in the mid 70s resulting in MLCAPE
around 1500 J/kg. Deep layer shear around 35-40 kts will allow for a
few more organized storms, with potential for large hail and
damaging winds. It is uncertain if storms will be able to become
surface based, or if more intense storms will be more than isolated
in coverage. Additional daytime heating and storm scale processes
will likely be needed. Trends are being monitored but a watch is
unlikely at this time.

..Thornton/Hart.. 07/26/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5hRY9gmul5cHzbKxWBVoE3-oG4k9EwrF9QAo9hVPWaU8wsGfRYJyFW-zBlE7eMzeXE0WKccHJ= ZLIwCLUFrrJ1plHSTs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...

LAT...LON 38099203 38299241 38519249 38759240 38859212 39079178
39329149 39619115 39869101 40419054 40589022 40628984
40618951 40568940 40228928 39778923 39198919 38648922
38208941 37928998 37739040 37689104 38099203=20


=3D =3D =3D
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