ACUS11 KWNS 261230
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261230=20
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-261400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1722
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023

Areas affected...Northern IL...Far Southern WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 261230Z - 261400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail is possible across northern IL and far
southern WI this morning.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm intensity has increased within the cluster
of warm-air advection storms in the western WI/IL border vicinity.
These storms are in between a southward-surging outflow moving
across southern WI and a somewhat diffuse warm front extending from
CWI to IKK. 12Z DVN sounding sampled an airmass supporting strong
elevated thunderstorms capable of isolated hail. Additionally, the
air mass downstream should further destabilize amid filtered heating
and modest low-level moisture advection. As such, a few instances of
hail are possible this morning as the cluster moves into
north-central and northeast IL. Some additional thunderstorm
development is possible farther south as well. Overall severe
coverage will likely remain isolated, and a watch is unlikely in the
near term. However, convective trends will be monitored closely for
signs of a more widespread severe potential.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 07/26/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Fxtza059yrq9FfG79FB5ZXWYkG4MnVTGSe8fkyJdfRrhVuwhSCYb1bfgp7MqMbAJMQXVmsX_= lpTRGOfqVlcDFpM8Y0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON 41839043 42829005 43038898 42618818 41518820 41038882
41229064 41839043=20


=3D =3D =3D
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