ACUS11 KWNS 260416
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260416=20
MNZ000-260545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1714
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023

Areas affected...portions of central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 548...

Valid 260416Z - 260545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 548
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe wind threat will accompany a bow-echo MCS as it
progresses east-southeastward through the night.

DISCUSSION...An earlier multicellular cluster has organized into a
well-defined bow echo MCS. Regional radar velocity data suggests
that a rear-inflow jet has developed with this bow echo, which may
be augmenting severe gust potential. The bow-echo continues to
traverse the MUCAPE gradient amid 40+ kts of line-normal effective
bulk shear, suggesting that this bow echo may become long-lived.
Furthermore, 04Z mesoanalysis depicts up to 20 kts of 0-1 km shear
with a southwesterly component. The stronger low-level shear is
likely driven by the terminus of the low-level jet, which continues
to foster strong 850 mb WAA. This may keep the cold pool from
undercutting the bow-echo, further contributing to longevity. While
increasing boundary layer CINH may influence severe wind production
to some degree, the aforementioned rear-inflow jet should compensate
for a persisting organized severe wind threat.

..Squitieri.. 07/26/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5NpvakfMK0pcB6IHSVBVEuqYbYyxnQ9AuD53pSYFvyXhPpKE0d26xn9Ly1rVyoauLkWVXbmtH= Rb02A6nm9WwLsb_Ucc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...

LAT...LON 45829546 45749438 45319311 44849278 44509295 44459342
44679424 44959497 45149551 45829546=20


=3D =3D =3D
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