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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1712

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 26 02:02:53 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 260202
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 260202=20
    IAZ000-SDZ000-260330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1712
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0902 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023

    Areas affected...portions of eastern South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 547...

    Valid 260202Z - 260330Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 547
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch 547. The severe threat is primarily confined to single
    supercell storm, capable of producing mainly severe hail and wind.

    DISCUSSION...A lone supercell thunderstorm is in progress across
    Hand County, SD, which has a history of producing measured severe
    gusts and perhaps up to 2 inch diameter hail (per MRMS mosaic radar
    data over the past 2 hours). This storm is thriving in an
    environment of extreme instability (i.e. 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE per 00Z mesoanalysis) and 45 kts of effective bulk shear. Furthermore, the
    00Z mesoanalysis shows locally higher low-level shear (with modest
    low-level hodograph curvature contributing to 200 m2/s2 effective
    SRH). Though convective inhibition remains across the warm sector,
    this supercell is expected to persist for at least a few more hours
    with a continued severe hail and wind threat. A tornado cannot be
    completely ruled out given the locally higher low-level shear,
    though it is unclear how tornado potential will be impacted by the
    CINH and interference of smaller cells merging into the supercell
    updraft.

    It is questionable whether other storms can develop across Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch 547, so the main severe threat should remain with
    the ongoing supercell, at least in the near-term.

    ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8DFn_zaWYR--XMbU2PLYzjW8v8YUYh7p9u8g7Vmw2wG7cZP9ZeSklzQyZt502Ypzvk8QPVvIo= ycQXJM8vghY6rTchQo$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...

    LAT...LON 44829816 45019716 44809651 44079646 43299657 42999692
    43019760 43279860 43469886 43909915 44419906 44639852
    44829816=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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