ACUS11 KWNS 260131
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260131=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-260300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1711
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0831 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023

Areas affected...portions of western into central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 260131Z - 260300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across western into
central Minnesota. Supercells with a severe hail/wind threat may
materialize before upscale growth into an MCS, when severe winds
become the main threat. Convective trends are being monitored for
the need of a WW issuance.

DISCUSSION...Though convection has oscillated in intensity across
eastern ND over the last few hours (likely due to strong capping), a
cluster of thunderstorms at the nose of a weak 700 mb WAA regime has
recently intensified (per latest MRMS mosaic radar data). These
storms are poised to traverse a buoyancy axis along the SD/ND/MN
border area, where widespread 40+ kts of effective bulk shear are
also present. The more dominant cells may become supercellular,
supporting a severe wind and hail threat. However, persistent
low-level WAA may encourage upscale growth of this convective
cluster into an MCS. Should this occur, severe winds would become
the main concern. Convective trends are being monitored for the need
of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/26/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4YgJ38aKFxsgsDcCsAuAg1t3UWf8B1RIFEWPlm5GfUw5VxQBmxFlCcLaJk7OOlXrGb7ZN5Im0= 65tM3GA3rV0Qg_mJMQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON 46069743 46339714 46429637 46219544 45789445 45299374
44939346 44649350 44499385 44499422 44489482 44589544
44759595 44999636 45449696 46069743=20


=3D =3D =3D
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