ACUS11 KWNS 252234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252234=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-260000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1708
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0534 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 252234Z - 260000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of severe hail and wind may accompany the
stronger storms that continue to develop. The severe threat should
remain isolated overall and a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Convection continues to intensify over portions of
central and eastern CO, with a supercell structure evident moving
into Elbert County. These storms continue to move off of the higher
terrain atop a heated, well-mixed boundary layer (with surface
temperatures over 100 F amid low 50s F dewpoints leading to 50 T/Td
spreads). As such, all storms in this environment should be
high-based. Some large hail may develop, though the warm low-level temperatures/high spreads would encourage appreciable hail melting.
The main severe threat may be severe gusts in association with
strong evaporative cooling and associated downward momentum
transport. Overall, the severe threat should remain fairly isolated
and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is not expected.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/25/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!42Ok2NW3ca_6KZ3AfoFDbherNZw2AhfkR4tt5SMvmRhY3M8eMF8fLDgiQi0HnfytpLjEWHZ5S= h3jKfi8VD1TR2gsPfY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 39200202 38300238 37880296 37750372 37780445 38440482
38850490 39870504 40970359 41050259 40730219 39870201
39200202=20


=3D =3D =3D
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