ACUS11 KWNS 241959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241958=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-242200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1698
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

Areas affected...Central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 241958Z - 242200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated wind and hail threat possible through the
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is ongoing across central
Minnesota along a warm front/stationary boundary. Daytime heating
and dew points in the low to mid 60s has yielded MLCAPE around 1000
J/kg. Within the larger open wave trough across the Great Lakes,
40-50 kt mid-level flow is advancing southward across the Dakotas
with deep layer shear around 40-45 kts across Minnesota, weakening
with eastward extent. Given the shear is largely parallel to the
warm front, training storms along the boundary will be likely. Storm
splits will be supported by largely straight hodographs. Steep
mid-level lapse rates along with shear profiles will support
potential for damaging wind and large hail (isolated up to 2 in). As
this threat looks to remain isolated, a watch is unlikely at this
time.

..Thornton/Hart.. 07/24/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9fCNCcrtySKxlX87F3O62ZSnoJPJH7UuRaSGBP31yMVBS43Pg8v8MEFd1-5Hsj4o_PihWsCRr= Ns30br8OwLMkIaHJUI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON 45359630 45409642 45719660 46009654 46169635 46189588
46159514 46149438 46009361 45799309 45449271 44789245
44479249 44289260 44109282 44229357 44509427 44809499
45039562 45199594 45359630=20


=3D =3D =3D
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