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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1694

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 24 15:59:10 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 241559
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 241558=20
    VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-241800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1694
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1058 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

    Areas affected...parts of northeastern Pennsylvania...central and
    eastern New York...Vermont and western Massachusetts

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 241558Z - 241800Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms, possibly including an organizing cluster,
    are expected to continue to gradually intensify with increasing
    potential for damaging wind gusts while spreading northeastward
    across the region through 2-4 PM EDT. Trends are being monitored
    for the possibility of a severe weather watch.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm development is underway, as
    insolation contributes to steepening lapse rates and weakening
    inhibition, beneath a pocket of cool air aloft (at or below -12 to
    -14 C around 500 mb) advecting northeastward to the lee of the lower
    Great Lakes. This includes a clustering of storms now spreading to
    the north of the Pocono Mountains, near the exit region of a
    northeastward propagating mid-level jet streak (30-35 kt around 500
    mb).=20

    With continued boundary-layer heating ahead of this activity across
    eastern New York into adjacent portions of western New England,
    further upscale convective growth appears possible. As mixed-layer
    CAPE steadily increases in excess of 1000 J/kg, in the presence of
    modest vertical shear, convection may gradually organize with a
    strengthening cold pool becoming accompanied by increasing risk for
    damaging wind gusts.

    ..Kerr/Hart.. 07/24/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8IPERJZ5V6xAKenN2rwqpwEy8McUq95gsijvgjVmjabahwJiq8YfLr40yJpGFSyP45aM8wW2K= T1DxzhOO70J1mroGyY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

    LAT...LON 44897439 44767250 42897257 41247588 41097748 43157679
    43907637 44897439=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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