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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1692

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 24 10:08:38 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 241008
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 241007=20
    MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-241130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1692
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0507 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

    Areas affected...Southwest/South-Central IA...Northwest MO...Far
    Northeast KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 241007Z - 241130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Threat for severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
    damaging gusts may extend into southwest/south-central IA, northwest
    MO and far northeast KS. A watch may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Ongoing cluster of thunderstorms across far eastern NE
    and far western IA has shown a trend toward more southeastward
    progression over the last hour or so. Current storm motion takes the
    cluster to the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 542 by 11Z. This
    cluster is moving within the buoyancy gradient, with mesoanalysis
    estimating about 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE where the storms are ongoing
    across far eastern NE and less than 500 J/kg farther east into
    central IA. This should limit the eastern extent of the severe
    threat, but enough buoyancy could still be in place across southwest
    IA to support strong updrafts capable of hail. Main uncertainty is
    just how far east in southwest/south-central IA storms are able to
    maintain intensity. Moderate buoyancy is already in place across
    northwest MO and far northeast KS, with higher confidence that the
    severe threat will extend into that region after 11Z. Convective
    trends will be monitored closely and an additional watch may be
    needed if trends suggest the threat will extend into a substantive
    portion of southwest/south-central IA.

    ..Mosier/Edwards.. 07/24/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!47b2a7XZZ_1ezCGWSpLMghYHDlDhM4YPCDQo21xa7A418WGGlSDkzJwowZ7lChoGXyMPRFbuU= IliCJjWWi_hPEU3u_A$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

    LAT...LON 41119550 41619492 41509411 41049370 40239354 39699441
    39919566 41119550=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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