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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1690

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 24 06:29:10 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 240629
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 240628=20
    IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-240900-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1690
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0128 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

    Areas affected...Southeast SD...Northeast/East-Central NE...Far
    Western IA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 240628Z - 240900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop from southeast SD
    into northeast/east-central NE and adjacent far western IA
    overnight. Severe-storm coverage is uncertain, but large hail is
    possible and a watch may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Recent mesoanalysis shows a relatively small corridor
    of 25-30 kt 850-mb winds from central NE into south-central SD,
    contributing to broad warm-air advection across central and eastern
    SD. Current IR satellite imagery shows increasingly deep cloud cover
    within this region of warm-air advection across in the ONL and MHE
    vicinity. This modest low-level flow and associated warm-air
    advection is expected to persist throughout the night, likely
    pushing parcels to their LFC and supporting thunderstorm
    development.

    RAP forecast sounding from the same region show steep mid-level
    lapse rates and 2500 to 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE, as well as long
    hodographs and strong deep-layer shear. These environmental
    conditions support the potential for a few supercells capable of
    large hail. Isolated very large hail with diameter greater than 2"
    is not out of the question. Overall storm coverage is uncertain, but
    convective trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance.

    ..Mosier/Edwards.. 07/24/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_GvyOQeNFLqxaAZ2xkt01VMWtdSHBK4UtLp-K-mlRsXomzvPuH6duEIxQkxYRySTrTWR4_XB2= e8LPbyMLqRjgWUqxaI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...

    LAT...LON 42509837 44389894 44859777 43389645 41559551 41059698
    42509837=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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