ACUS11 KWNS 240241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240241=20
AZZ000-240345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1689
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0941 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023

Areas affected...portions of southern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 240241Z - 240345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A severe gust or two may accompany the stronger cells
embedded within a multicell complex. The severe threat will be
sparse and a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...A multicellular complex of storms has steadily grown in
size and intensity over the past couple of hours while propagating
off of the higher terrain, toward a hot, well-mixed boundary layer.
Surface temperatures over 100 F amid low 50s F dewpoints are
contributing to 1000 J/kg SBCAPE, with boundary-layer lapse rates
exceeding 9 C/km (per latest mesoanalysis). As such, efficient
evaporative cooling and downward momentum transport may support a
severe gust or two this evening. Given the isolated nature of the
severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri.. 07/24/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6f8Ts6RgFtHTnFJx7D5nZTWlgEE0JZ1D1GAEuYOo7B4yuAQS7m_wDqC7pzyiA1omeJu5ieezn= mlswbsQCp_mIgtLfm0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...PSR...

LAT...LON 31881302 32271294 32471251 32571184 32511123 32281068
31921051 31621081 31511117 31491165 31881302=20


=3D =3D =3D
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