ACUS11 KWNS 232223
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232222=20
KYZ000-INZ000-232345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1687
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0522 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023

Areas affected...portions of southern Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 232222Z - 232345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated instance of large hail may accompany the
stronger storms that manage to sustain themselves. A WW issuance is
not expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have pulsed in intensity over the past
several hours across the OH Valley, supporting a few instances of
large hail despite mediocre vertical shear profiles. Nonetheless, a
few storms (especially in southern IN) have shown some supercell characteristics over the past couple of hours, with MRMS mosaic
radar data showing the presence of at least marginally severe
streaks of hail. Given the presence of 1500-3000 J/kg SBCAPE/MUCAPE
and continued surface heating, additional bouts of large hail cannot
be ruled out with storms that can maintain supercell structures
through the remainder of the evening. Nonetheless, the severe threat
should remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected.

..Squitieri.. 07/23/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8lU98s92cs9foylqlCJrwub9sCZbl1YzUmleg1hrheBsRm6pQVHL2l2ycXNUSuqqVMJOge6Fs= FKy3QaxCsuaR2QlHkk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...

LAT...LON 39118691 39518614 39688567 39668510 39578491 39338482
39058488 38778520 38518556 38398590 38388622 38438655
38558676 39118691=20


=3D =3D =3D
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