ACUS11 KWNS 232159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232158=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-240030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1686
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023

Areas affected...Portions of MO into west-central IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 232158Z - 240030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated risk for severe hail and damaging winds may
continue into the early evening. Watch issuance is not expected at
this time.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed late this
afternoon along a weak surface trough across parts of
northern/eastern MO as a weak mid-level disturbance cresting the
upper ridge continues southeastward across the upper/mid MS Valley.
The airmass downstream of this activity into central MO and
west-central IL is moderately unstable, with MLCAPE generally
2000-2500 J/kg. But, deep-layer shear remains marginal, around 20-25
kt, given fairly modest mid/upper-level northwesterly flow. Still,
occasional updraft organization has been noted with the strongest
cores, with a recent 1 inch severe hail report. Isolated severe hail
and damaging winds may remain a threat with this convection as it
spreads slowly southward over the next couple of hours. Given the
weak shear, watch issuance is not expected at this time.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/23/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_QHK4nwWfN48Yhi4vtPv0kH-VwZFMUj-hDVXj7cILxQHLVjvePKT7BnEcRvSx8MYRqlu18Y0F= 6dfiN4T-Ai6hSmWMyg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON 39779333 39559212 39599083 39078997 38249005 37969152
38149303 38699365 39379363 39789333 39779333=20


=3D =3D =3D
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