ACUS11 KWNS 231406
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231406=20
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-231600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1684
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0906 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2023

Areas affected...northern FL...southern GA and southern SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 231406Z - 231600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm clusters will increase through the morning,
posing a risk for sporadic locally strong/damaging gusts into the
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm clusters are expected to increase in coverage/intensity late this morning into this afternoon. Initial
development is ongoing ahead of a complex of thunderstorms moving
east across the northeast Gulf and approaching northern FL. Other
thunderstorms will continue to develop northward near a cold front
extending from near the east-central GA/west-central SC border
through central GA and into southeast AL. Ahead of these features, a
seasonally moist airmass is in place, with surface dewpoints in the
70s. Low-level inhibition has already eroded across northern FL
where mostly clear skies has allowed temperatures to approach the
low 80s F, with time and additional heating, inhibition will rapidly
erode with northward extent. Midlevel lapse rates will remain
modest, but MLCAPE increasing to around 1500-2500 J/kg will be
common by midday. Effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt will
aid in at least transient organized clusters while high PW values
and modest low-level lapse rates support sporadic strong gusts.=20

A severe thunderstorm watch does not appear necessary at this time,
but if any better organized clusters develop, a watch could become
necessary this afternoon and trends will be monitored.

..Leitman/Hart.. 07/23/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4bgzyQ1_42OIKmiP2PqA0n020mAs5cmBuMRaes27eDt6Qcvo0gTcI8E52KcpVuJkH7MLU7Bjm= cFDRCwiEg8BgZWGaBI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 29328409 30558488 31828474 32348426 33038303 33428189
33308125 32878046 32448017 30338058 28918093 28238188
28018275 28228299 28758372 29328409=20


=3D =3D =3D
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