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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1681

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 22 21:56:59 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 222156
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222156=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-222330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1681
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0456 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

    Areas affected...portions of extreme eastern Texas...central and
    southern Louisiana into southern Mississippi

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 540...

    Valid 222156Z - 222330Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 540
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
    Watch 540. Damaging gusts remain the primary threat, though an
    instance or two of large hail cannot be ruled out.

    DISCUSSION...Multicellular clusters have organized roughly into two
    west-east oriented bands of storms over the past couple of hours,
    with a history of a couple of strong, damaging gusts. MRMS mosaic
    radar imagery suggest that the cores of the stronger storms are
    quite deep, with 30 dBZ echoes extending to 60 kft in spots, with 50
    dBZ echoes reaching over 35 kft. Though deep-layer shear remains
    modest, 21Z mesoanalysis depicts over 4000 J/kg MLCAPE residing
    ahead of these deep cores (driven mainly by rich low-level moisture
    beneath 6-7 C/km mid-level lapse rates per latest RAP forecast
    soundings). Furthermore, the RAP forecast soundings show PWATS well
    over 2 inches given the rich moisture. As such, water-loading within
    these deep storm cores may promote additional damaging gusts (some
    potentially exceeding severe limits), and even an instance or two of
    large hail cannot be completely ruled out. The severe threat should
    persist through the remainder of the diurnal heating cycle, or when
    storms overturn all of the boundary layer over land, which ever
    comes first.

    ..Squitieri.. 07/22/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Iy3OK3OkMFw9krX_fITzyC7dYF87qcgwg8_ciivC4PKnPuuDMRLDWjSe9r9JYBPkA4PKU8fI= v1CX26xJRy5nX-VaqI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 31699438 31959182 31989098 31518986 30778923 30308926
    29468969 29219049 29329176 29559259 29879362 31699438=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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