ACUS11 KWNS 222054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222054=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-222300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1680
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico and the western Texas Panhandle
into Southwest Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 222054Z - 222300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered storms capable of large hail and strong winds
possible late afternoon/early evening.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected across
eastern New Mexico through the afternoon and early evening, with
some uncertainty as to how far into Texas storms will track. Cumulus
has increased across northeastern New Mexico with attempts at cell
development over the last hour. Additionally, areas of convection
ongoing across the high terrain may move into the lower elevations
through the afternoon as well. MLCAPE is observed around 1000-2000
J/kg. Shear is largely confined to far northeastern New Mexico into
the Texas Panhandle. Given uncertainty in coverage and if storms
will track into the best shear/instability overlap, a watch is
unlikely at this time. Isolated instances of large hail and gusty
winds will be possible.

..Thornton/Hart.. 07/22/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-afhPTAEGoZ_M-OQ4gtS9RFyjV5mrPt1NTQP2ewYM1oPqC38RKBVKhYc0dHYnLbKbJj8plOax= IkunLEyc6DHkNM3G8g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35200526 35830477 36380435 36850379 37050334 37030272
36700255 36340240 35930238 35510236 35190240 34730240
34110247 33860261 33690278 33570299 33410347 33310398
33680481 34290533 35200526=20


=3D =3D =3D
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