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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1677

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 22 18:58:00 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 221857
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221857=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-222100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1677
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0157 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

    Areas affected...Western/Central Kansas...southern Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 221857Z - 222100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms capable of large hail and damaging winds possible
    this afternoon. Area is being monitored for watch potential.

    DISCUSSION...Daytime heating across central Kansas into southern
    Nebraska has warmed temperatures into the upper 80s to 90s helping
    to aid in reducing convective inhibition. This is evident in the
    development of a few disorganized cells along with cumulus deepening
    on satellite. Dew points are in the mid to upper 60s with some
    mixing occurring across portions of central Kansas. MLCAPE around
    1000-2000 J/kg is noted in surface objective analysis extending
    across southern Nebraska into central Kansas. Enhanced flow around
    the periphery of the western ridge is supporting deep layer shear
    around 30-40 kts (higher with western extent) into portions of
    central/western Kansas and Nebraska. Two distinct areas of
    development are ongoing southeast of North Platte, NE and further
    south in Kansas northwest of Topeka, KS. Further development is
    expected through the afternoon with some uncertainty on coverage. A
    weak mid-level impulse moving southward from the Dakotas maid
    further aid development by late afternoon/early evening. The
    background environment will be supportive of supercells and
    multi-cell clusters with potential for large hail (some up to 2 in)
    and damaging winds. This area is being monitored for watch
    potential.

    ..Thornton/Hart.. 07/22/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9G6dOrodJ1PBy5KMD5XY0cXhxIVm09ci6ERgWakuO7QHxItqB_aD4Af00_a_Hpo417jsT-Tz2= 9XbSs0hiPi6HQH_q98$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

    LAT...LON 39790137 40440061 40680018 40799963 40969879 40959817
    40889721 40749659 40449615 40049573 39539564 39109587
    38929612 38779651 38609699 38339755 38119811 37739892
    37599933 37180025 37220130 37490179 37800195 38020200
    39790137=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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