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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1676

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 22 18:06:26 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 221806
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221806=20
    LAZ000-MSZ000-221930-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1676
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0106 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

    Areas affected...portions of central/southern LA into far southern
    MS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 221806Z - 221930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to gradually increase
    over the next 1-2 hours. Locally strong gusts will be possible
    through early evening.

    DISCUSSION...Strong heating and surface dewpoints in the low/mid 70s
    F have contributed to MLCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg across the region
    this afternoon. Thunderstorms are increasing to the southwest of a
    severe warned cluster over southern MS along a southward-sagging
    surface front. Visible satellite imagery has shown
    increasing/deepening cumulus near the surface boundary over the past
    couple of hours, and additional thunderstorm development is expected
    in the next 1-2 hours. Vertical shear is weaker compared to further
    east across WW 539. However, given moderate/strong instability, high
    PW values (near 2 inches), and steep low-level lapse rates near 8
    C/km, sporadic wet microbursts are possible. If sufficient
    clustering/outflow consolidation occurs, damaging wind potential
    could increase with any forward-propagating clusters that develop.
    Convective trends will be monitored, and a severe thunderstorm watch
    could be issued at some point this afternoon if organized clusters
    develop.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 07/22/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5F3t846gptdh-5sjZ5ce8e9_Ad4bUa65UkII8m0uiT3-smBQ9PHSAlHlb3d3J0YTepxqnRyBQ= QetJTjlikhC-tdFfng$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

    LAT...LON 31259333 31419088 31298968 30818945 30378951 29998958
    29888993 29789039 29809131 30039246 30849349 30879345
    31259333=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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