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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1675

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jul 22 16:01:26 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 221601
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221600=20
    GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-221800-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1675
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1100 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

    Areas affected...portions of southern MS/AL/GA and the FL Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 221600Z - 221800Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms coverage/intensity is expected to increase
    over the next 1-2 hours. Strong gusts are possible with this
    activity. Trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance this
    afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Strong heating along/ahead of a quasi-stationary front
    and composite outflow boundary, stretching from far southern MS
    eastward to southwest GA, has allowed development of MLCAPE to
    2500-3500 J/kg. Towering cumulus along the surface boundary, as well
    as deepening cumulus into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle, has
    increased over the past 30-60 minutes as boundary layer inhibition
    has eroded. Bands/clusters of thunderstorms are expected to increase
    in coverage and intensity over the next couple of hours. This
    activity will remain on the southern fringes of stronger midlevel
    flow, but effective shear values around 25 kt will allow for some
    organization. If enough cold pool generation occurs within this very moist/unstable and modestly sheared environment, damaging wind
    potential could increase with any south/southeast propagating
    clusters. While the need for a severe thunderstorm watch does not
    appear imminent, trends will be monitored for possible watch
    issuance sometime this afternoon.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 07/22/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6JaAJXnKs2hu9Hge9bjW7_8uM3HoZLeUB-EeCdw6zRhUuJFL4AqGIXcvoJbCCljOtqz17t9mu= NNU1_TQA7oyQkUy-Sk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 30248769 30428907 30898944 31288935 31568903 31828609
    32008388 31998366 31868336 31528295 31208274 30878273
    30588296 30348345 30148446 30248769=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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