ACUS11 KWNS 220028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220028=20
NMZ000-220230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1673
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

Areas affected...northeast New Mexico

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 537...

Valid 220028Z - 220230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 537
continues.

SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail or locally strong gusts remain
possible within watch 537. Additional watches are unlikely this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Scattered cells persist over northeast NM, in a zone of
1000 J/kg MLCAPE and beneath 25-35 kt mid to high-level flow. Cells
have been notably small in diameter, but with radar indicated hail
up to 1.00" at times. Low-level easterly winds will persist across
the region this evening, and may lead to new cells along existing
outflows. However, overall storm trends are forecast to be downward
over the next few hours as convective inhibition gradually
increases. Given the lower magnitudes of precipitable water compared
to previous days, an MCS is not expected.

..Jewell.. 07/22/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9FYC8sCw9BEm6nET0b_duufxnC8G8gWAMmuqLX2pRjDsnwMMNsoaoyMxpKmk0jk3Ic3Z9JJg8= zxfP0tmM-FyAqi4vyc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34840313 34700332 34660388 34770464 35060548 35220573
35490572 35810547 36210526 36390479 36390441 36280413
36020396 35830382 35130305 34840313=20


=3D =3D =3D
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