ACUS11 KWNS 212048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212048=20
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-212245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1670
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

Areas affected...Eastern NY into parts of New England

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 534...

Valid 212048Z - 212245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 534
continues.

SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated damaging wind and hail will
continue late this afternoon into part of the evening.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon
across parts of CT and western MA into VT and southern NH, in and
near WW 534. However, storms have generally struggled to intensify
thus far, despite the presence of moderate buoyancy and marginally
favorable deep-layer shear. Weak midlevel lapse rates have likely
limited updraft intensity, but a few storms have recently
strengthened across parts of MA/VT into southern NH. Marginal
supercell structures will remain possible into early evening, with a
threat of isolated damaging wind and hail, and possibly a brief
tornado. A somewhat greater damaging-wind threat could evolve if
some modestly organized upscale growth occurs, but this scenario is
more uncertain.=20

Additional storms may move into the region from eastern New York, as
the primary cold front approaches. Depending on the extent of
remaining instability in the wake of earlier convection, these later
storms could also pose an isolated severe threat into at least part
of the evening.

..Dean.. 07/21/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6bcByc7tehoCPLLUS2PcA9j4HvWz7j56l6QFSYZT8zNobg5PIfTPmXV59f-nTOG6EMmrfIUNs= oEba19GUoPxXonBhfA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

LAT...LON 41317426 44067341 44247284 43757201 43307148 41837183
41397191 41057359 41317426=20


=3D =3D =3D
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