ACUS11 KWNS 212025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212025=20
NMZ000-COZ000-212200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1669
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

Areas affected...Parts of northeast/east-central NM

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 212025Z - 212200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated supercells capable of large hail and localized
severe gusts may evolve late this afternoon. Watch issuance is
possible.

DISCUSSION...Low-level easterly flow is transporting modest
low-level moisture toward the higher terrain of northeast NM, and
thunderstorms have recently developed to the west/southwest of the
Raton vicinity. Instability and deep-layer shear are both somewhat
weaker compared to some recent days, but MLCAPE may increase to near
1000 J/kg by late afternoon, while modest northwesterly midlevel
flow may support sufficient effective shear for marginal supercell
structures. Large hail will likely be the primary initial threat,
though some threat for severe gusts may evolve with time.=20

Coverage of the severe threat remains somewhat uncertain, but with
the potential for a couple of supercells, watch issuance is possible
later this afternoon.

..Dean/Hart.. 07/21/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5kXvvJ2cXS7mSM_9YKIHOPo4uVN5qIuaNQavaJujtDRwZC9AWsgJBYBsPHM1mg1NYjoVe6eNR= F0rOwEOg7qsyrYIiDc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36330316 34830320 34420369 34340436 34410497 34720548
35000576 35550590 36110564 36490550 37050488 37080415
36840343 36330316=20


=3D =3D =3D
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