ACUS11 KWNS 211717
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211717=20
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-211815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1665
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2023

Areas affected...Central Arkansas...northeastern
Mississippi...southwestern Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 211717Z - 211815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind threat increasing. Area is being monitored
for Severe Thunderstorm Watch potential.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery showed intensification in a bowing
line of storms moving through northern Arkansas. A 55 mph wind gusts
was recorded at the Searcy Municipal Airport outside of Searcy, AR.
This coincides well with an area of enhanced wind (50-55 kts)
observed just off the surface on radar from KLZK. Several storm
mergers have since occurred within the apex of this bow but the
recent radar observations indicate a region of 50-60 kts aloft
around 2500-3000 kft. The line continues to move along a gradient of
MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg. The continued favorable wind signal in
radar in combination with an increase in forward propagation of the
line does raise some concern for downstream wind risk. In addition,
agitated cu has developed across portions of southwestern Tennessee
with the potential for further development ahead of this line of
storms.

..Thornton/Hart.. 07/21/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7O9XdGLXbB8ELR9_04IOskQ0CuGOBaAOkLLVQZ5HZI9DiFIjwRFNrLyc2r_XBVIQs_zzpbhfb= 9NpQVetxg7z7VSCtHc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 35089188 35459195 35739188 35949173 36099164 36139146
36139133 36029102 35779059 35709043 35629019 35478985
35178950 34978953 34928957 34848964 34499013 34199042
34109065 34159088 34259110 34449125 34639142 34839163
34969179 35089188=20


=3D =3D =3D
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