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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1656

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jul 21 02:07:47 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 210207
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210207=20
    NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-210400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1656
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0907 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

    Areas affected...much of central New York and Pennsylvania...as
    wellas northwest New Jersey

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 528...

    Valid 210207Z - 210400Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 528
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat persists across mainly central and
    northern Pennsylvania into south-central New York. If storms
    maintain strength, a new watch could be needed for additional areas
    of eastern Pennsylvania and New York.

    DISCUSSION...A line of storms currently extends from Lake Ontario
    southward into northern PA, extending west/southwestward into
    western PA and central OH along the cold front. The primary outflow
    surge is currently pushing east across the northern half of PA to
    the PA/NY border where the line has a more favorable north-south
    orientation with respect to the winds aloft.

    The air mass remains sufficiently unstable at around 1000 J/kg
    MLCAPE, with the greatest surface theta-e over southeast PA where
    dewpoints exceed 68 F. In addition, gradual cooling aloft will
    continue tonight as the upper trough nears. Given the level of storm organization with the line of storms, and 850 mb southwesterlies of
    20-30 kt, the threat for damaging gusts is expected to persist into
    parts of eastern PA, southern NY and perhaps northwest NJ.

    ..Jewell.. 07/21/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-kRsMVGY0fJFH55PBxeXc2cDunsWRkraRAGJHpc6_RCnfJtJ7gETGPdzuGbZ-eYAfFsVEG9ht= cNBb3x7v0ndR2iBL1I$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

    LAT...LON 43397769 43597686 43507612 43237541 42707487 42097470
    41027473 40157485 40017495 39927509 40017576 40197640
    40427734 40697802 40827809 41077793 41507749 42037729
    42497721 42997728 43247758 43397769=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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