• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1653

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 20 22:19:45 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 202219
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202219=20
    COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-210015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1653
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0519 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

    Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming into Eastern Colorado

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526...

    Valid 202219Z - 210015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526
    continues.

    SUMMARY...All severe hazards will remain possible this afternoon
    into the evening, particularly for southeast Colorado. The tornado
    threat will be maximized along/near a surface boundary from near
    Lamar to northeast of Pueblo.

    DISCUSSION...Numerous supercells continue in eastern Colorado into
    southeast Wyoming. The most intense of these storms are in southeast
    Colorado where surface heating has been greater. Strong
    northwesterly effective shear and MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg
    (maximized in southeast Colorado with lesser amounts farther north)
    will continue to support supercells capable of severe wind gusts,
    large to very large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. A surface
    boundary is evident within surface observations and local radar
    imagery in southeast Colorado. KPUX VAD profiles show slightly more
    enlarged low-level hodographs as a result. The tornado threat this
    afternoon will be maximized along/near this boundary. With time,
    storm interactions should lead to upscale growth into an MCS, a
    consensus scenario in high-resolution guidance. At that time, severe
    wind gusts (some exceeding 75 mph) would become the primary threat.

    For northeast Colorado into southeast Wyoming, the overall threat
    will be somewhat mitigated by lesser buoyancy and more stable air
    just to the east.

    ..Wendt.. 07/20/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4a4ONjaZWkPmjE7NYnDEgUT2osj5Z1jvG0wZxxCFxuQHPAY3TwF0gEtkYyYokUwCmlWqF9m2L= dHW-Sru_jePGl7HjHI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 37450480 38940506 39970512 41380526 41540455 40730275
    37900213 37250218 37070350 37210427 37450480=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 20 22:36:16 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 202236
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202235 COR
    COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-210015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1653
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0535 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

    Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming into Eastern Colorado

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526...

    Valid 202235Z - 210015Z

    CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 526
    continues.

    SUMMARY...All severe hazards will remain possible this afternoon
    into the evening, particularly for southeast Colorado. The tornado
    threat will be maximized along/near a surface boundary from near
    Lamar to northeast of Pueblo.

    DISCUSSION...Numerous supercells continue in eastern Colorado into
    southeast Wyoming. The most intense of these storms are in southeast
    Colorado where surface heating has been greater. Strong
    northwesterly effective shear and MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg
    (maximized in southeast Colorado with lesser amounts farther north)
    will continue to support supercells capable of severe wind gusts,
    large to very large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. A surface
    boundary is evident within surface observations and local radar
    imagery in southeast Colorado. KPUX VAD profiles show slightly more
    enlarged low-level hodographs as a result. The tornado threat this
    afternoon will be maximized along/near this boundary. With time,
    storm interactions should lead to upscale growth into an MCS, a
    consensus scenario in high-resolution guidance. At that time, severe
    wind gusts (some exceeding 75 mph) would become the primary threat.

    For northeast Colorado into southeast Wyoming, the overall threat
    will be somewhat mitigated by lesser buoyancy and more stable air
    just to the east.

    ..Wendt.. 07/20/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7-UMWuyF9cxL1iLUu4S47kpOPR4HR7NONoN48XOcc8TQkCzIK_UlkBvm3HN7RRy39CsTzLaFB= nA_f_QwbebBF0eowAw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 37450480 38940506 39970512 41380526 41540455 40730275
    37900213 37250218 37070350 37210427 37450480=20


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)