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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1650

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 20 21:02:45 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 202102
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202101=20
    OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-202230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1650
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0401 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

    Areas affected...Central/northern IN/OH into far southeast MI

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 523...524...

    Valid 202101Z - 202230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 523, 524
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging wind and hail will continue into
    early evening.

    DISCUSSION...While a well-organized bowing cluster has moved into
    Ontario, somewhat more discrete storms are ongoing along a cold
    front into northeast IN and extreme southeast MI. With moderate
    buoyancy and increasing deep-layer shear (as noted in the 20Z ILN
    and PIT soundings) in advance of a midlevel shortwave trough moving
    across MI, strong to potentially severe storms will persist into
    early evening and perhaps increase in coverage into parts of
    northern OH. Relatively steep midlevel lapse rates will continue to
    support a large hail threat with any of the more discrete cells,
    with some potential for an increasing damaging wind threat as one or
    more upscale growing clusters eventually evolve with time.=20

    Farther southwest, prefrontal storms across central IN had shown a
    weakening trend after their initial development, but some
    strengthening has been noted again over the last 30 minutes. While
    large-scale ascent is somewhat weaker compared to areas farther
    north/east, a few stronger storms may pose a hail and damaging wind
    threat as they approach southeast IN and southwest OH into early
    evening.

    ..Dean.. 07/20/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!83Vc8P3SWwPUa3RnI81GtjfVi3dE4rJItCVLFOzHaezpFSlUasRo898oeO4YVSPvsQ5pjzuYG= -xh4ykVh6_5KtKeDfE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

    LAT...LON 40438356 39368728 40108737 40528706 41328606 41868510
    42178377 42298186 42188113 41718081 41108119 40658224
    40438356=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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