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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1649

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 20 20:57:17 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 202057
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202056=20
    NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-202230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1649
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0356 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

    Areas affected...Parts of western NY...western PA...and far eastern
    OH

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 202056Z - 202230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...The risk of severe winds will increase in the next few
    hours as an organized MCS overspreads the area from the west. A
    watch issuance is likely for parts of the area in the next hour or
    so.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar data from KDTX depicts a well-organized
    bowing MCS tracking eastward at around 40 kt in Ontario -- where a
    recent 63-kt gust was measured. Ahead of the MCS, antecedent diurnal
    heating of a relatively moist air mass (generally lower/middle 60s
    dewpoints) has contributed to weak/moderate surface-based
    instability -- with the greater instability confined to western PA
    and eastern OH (see 20Z observed PIT and 19Z BUF soundings). 40-50
    kt midlevel winds should support continued convective organization
    as it crosses Lake Erie and approaches western NY, eastern OH, and
    western PA -- with a risk of severe winds during the next few hours.
    While there is some uncertainty on how intense the northern portion
    of the line will be given less instability farther north, the
    well-established cold pool and favorable deep-layer shear will still
    pose a risk of severe outflow winds. A watch will likely be issued
    in the next hour or so.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/20/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7aOCzHgWJ8qcxuIGiN_PrlZ340PwiZxPv_1bQU1cULoXJNZgLjgV32hlUZvvqtBgqQvQj7wAO= pdDnUvIZJ_YoFzVm4M$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

    LAT...LON 41018093 41438034 41777990 42277963 42717940 43077923
    43357902 43467833 43397673 43197649 42297671 41617709
    41107755 40547849 40197938 40007998 39918060 39968119
    40208158 40518157 40738134 41018093=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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