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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1645

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 20 18:47:13 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 201847
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 201846=20
    SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-202015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1645
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0146 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

    Areas affected...Middle/eastern TN into northern AL...north
    GA...Upstate SC

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 523...

    Valid 201846Z - 202015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 523
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A damaging-wind threat will spread southeastward with
    time. Downstream watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...A bowing storm cluster with a history of damaging wind
    is moving southeastward east of Nashville, with recent vigorous
    development noted southeast of this cluster into southern middle and
    eastern TN, and increasing cumulus noted along the southwest flank.
    The background environment remains supportive of organized
    convection near and to the warm side of an outflow-reinforced
    surface boundary, with rich low-level moisture, MLCAPE in excess of
    2000 J/kg, and sufficient deep-layer shear.=20

    Isolated hail and maybe a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with any
    stronger discrete cell, but the damaging winds are expected to
    remain the primary threat. The ongoing bowing segment may continue
    to move southeastward near the surface boundary, with additional
    damaging-wind producing clusters possible as new development matures
    this afternoon. As a result, downstream watch issuance may be needed
    across parts of northern AL/GA and potentially into upstate SC.

    ..Dean/Hart.. 07/20/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7_jOcepH7kdOpY-GRi6nl2wKnlujiTSGwLtlJ3TFtrSRfK3O1jyeXGtzK-alZFcllF6IiZ5EM= 2IFFrAghB3Z6MAz9GI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

    LAT...LON 33988425 34518663 34878783 35468782 35838718 36318611
    35098436 34718303 34548213 34148166 33778193 33488223
    33988425=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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