ACUS11 KWNS 201426
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201425=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-201600-
Mesoscale Discussion 1640
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0925 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023
Areas affected...Parts of northeastern CO...southwestern NE...and
far northwestern KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20
Valid 201425Z - 201600Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Locally severe gusts could continue with an organized
cluster of thunderstorms this morning. A watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...KGLD/KFTG radar data shows an organized line segment
tracking east-northeastward at around 30-35 kt over northeastern CO
this morning. A 55-kt gust was recently measured in Akron CO with
this activity. While surface observations and the LBF observed
sounding suggest lingering nocturnal boundary-layer static
stability, forced ascent associated with an upstream mesoscale low
and a corridor of upper 60s dewpoints are likely aiding in
near-surface based inflow given steep midlevel lapse rates.
Around 30 kt of midlevel flow (per regional VWP), the favorably rich
low-level moisture, and ascent preceding the mesoscale low, may
favor continued organization and the potential for locally severe
gusts during the next hour or two. A watch is not currently expected
given the localized nature of the threat.
..Weinman/Hart.. 07/20/2023
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_QV5DWpmGr_nX8kGWBQaFrVkJK6PX_UQo4rPwgiqv9fUpj9surzVOkWuK_FQ8l4JIBANios-Z= vN1Y5kcJ-DDDSLRr9I$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 39600201 39600259 39700286 39920302 40160307 40350306
40540282 40640255 40710213 40710153 40630107 40490084
40230073 39860078 39720095 39600201=20
=3D =3D =3D
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