ACUS11 KWNS 201248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201247=20
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-201445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1638
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023

Areas affected...much of Tennessee and adjacent portions of southern Kentucky...southeastern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 201247Z - 201445Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development posing a risk for
severe hail and wind appears possible as early as mid morning into
midday (10 AM-Noon CDT). Trends are being monitored for the
possibility of a severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION...A remnant westerly mid-level jet streak (including
speeds of 40-50 kt), generated or enhanced by now decayed convection
initially near the Kansas/Oklahoma border earlier this morning,
appears likely to continue propagating east-southeastward across the
Ozark Plateau, toward the Tennessee Valley, through midday. To the
north of this feature, where seasonably moist low-level air has been maintained, and mid-level inhibition associated with elevated
mixed-layer air is weaker, forcing along the leading edge of outflow
and/or gravity waves, has been supporting renewed thunderstorm development.=20=20

More recently, cooling tops have been observed near the leading of
this jet, along its axis, near Poplar Bluff MO. During the next few
hours, a corridor of strengthening differential surface heating
beneath this regime, across far southeastern Missouri into middle
Tennessee, may provide a focus for considerable boundary-layer
destabilization and weakening inhibition, which could allow for
increasing and intensifying thunderstorm development. With
mixed-layer CAPE forecast to increase in excess of 2000 J/kg, in the
presence of strengthening deep-layer shear, this could include
supercell structures initially, then one or two upscale growing
clusters.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 07/20/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4J_HWi_tI7rqgD4VXsJBpKWHwBttzsC1df4UNsrFnQcM2ljypSeB2j03nkeWBaP8SIhm1GA2C= n9cao4F-neYwlp0Wfs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 37258932 37188736 37018605 36068370 35548412 35338536
35318707 35838827 35968992 36659038 37258932=20


=3D =3D =3D
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