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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1637

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 20 00:42:32 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 200042
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 200042=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-200445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1637
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0742 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

    Areas affected...far eastern Colorado...much of western into
    south-central Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 519...

    Valid 200042Z - 200445Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 519
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe storms persist from eastern Colorado into northwest
    Kansas, and may expand southeastward across the remainder of western
    and central/south-central Kansas this evening. Additional watches
    are possible later this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Several areas of storms from northeast NM into
    northwest KS are beginning to converge into western KS where the air
    mass remains moist and unstable. The axis of instability with MLCAPE
    over 3000 J/kg extends across the southern half of KS, also just
    south of a subtle east-west surface convergence zone.

    Localized gusts to 60 kt have already been measured near Colby, and
    several cells also contain severe hail. With time, outflows will
    likely link over western KS, with potential for damaging winds to
    develop down the instability axis. The 00Z sounding from DDC does
    show a somewhat shallow moist layer, but capping should be
    surmountable given a strong enough cold pool. In addition, cooler
    temperatures around 700 mb exist over central and northern KS, which
    may support a severe threat eventually there despite cooler surface temperatures.

    ..Jewell.. 07/20/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-9zXfO4ce5ayNki6ktmVZj1H4BniGb6iW2ZDa2RmuI8LeTzEPexxyZFMTG3EfCVZuYfIPkNM6= PILJ9VzvAcvGq7_Bx0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

    LAT...LON 37010039 36870183 36790242 37120248 37510272 37820316
    38250249 38660224 39030202 39230154 39520111 39850068
    39930036 39880002 39849960 39779877 39569855 39209842
    38749811 38379775 38069723 37899709 37479719 37199749
    37039825 37039893 37010039=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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