ACUS11 KWNS 192056
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192056=20
IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-192300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1634
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

Areas affected...North-central Nebraska into southeastern South
Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 192056Z - 192300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing
severe-thunderstorm potential this afternoon. Very large hail and
damaging winds are the main concerns. A watch is possible for parts
of the area.

DISCUSSION...In the wake of widespread morning convection across
central Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota, cloud breaks are
supporting filtered diurnal heating of a moist air mass
(middle/upper 60s dewpoints) along/south of a southward-moving cold
front. Clear skies north of the front and the early-day
convection/ongoing cloud coverage to the south have weakened the
frontal circulation, though a surface wind shift is still evident.
During the next couple of hours, isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms may develop in the vicinity of the wind shift and
perhaps subtle differential heating boundaries in central NE.=20

Steep midlevel lapse rates atop the destabilizing boundary-layer and
a long/straight hodograph (40-50 kt of effective shear) will support
supercells capable of producing large to very large hail and locally
severe gusts. Thunderstorm coverage is uncertain given lingering
inhibition associated with the antecedent outflow, though convective
trends are being monitored for a watch for parts of the area.

..Weinman/Hart.. 07/19/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6z_7EAGoYbjK3yTU_OuAarBDlVu75y-IJ-Dr2HJEzScuQwHVqIARLYBMW19eVhWtx4z_FhQKX= 79ejJUr7G1KOFmjdO4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 42310154 42020159 41620142 41380109 41140070 41090018
41339961 42129854 42449812 42789751 43039675 43259661
43699652 43869681 43899735 43829799 43639900 43379977
42850084 42510130 42310154=20


=3D =3D =3D
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