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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1631

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 19 20:18:02 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 192017
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 192017=20
    WIZ000-MNZ000-192145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1631
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0317 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023

    Areas affected...Southern Minnesota and far west-central Wisconsin

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 192017Z - 192145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Some threat for supercells capable of large hail and
    severe wind gusts may materialize this afternoon/evening. A watch
    may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Continued heating across southern Minnesota has
    gradually weakened convective inhibition this afternoon. Over the
    last 30 minutes, visible satellite shows deeper cumulus starting to
    develop, likely in response to ascent from the approaching mid-level
    shortwave trough. This increased ascent, combined with 1000 J/kg
    MLCAPE and expectation of some additional heating, could provide
    ample buoyancy/lift for thunderstorm development in the next 1 to 2
    hours. However, dewpoints have also started to decrease across
    western Minnesota in response to deeper mixing which could be a
    limiting factor to greater storm coverage. Strong mid-level flow (60
    knots per FSD VWP) will provide ample shear for supercells, some
    capable of 2+ inch hail. Additionally, an ongoing left-moving
    supercell across east-central South Dakota may continue east across
    southern Minnesota given moderate instability and a long/straight
    hodograph. The combination of this potential and the potential for
    additional scattered storm development may necessitate a severe
    thunderstorm watch or watch extension later this afternoon.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 07/19/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9piY74BCuBIixmu9D8hlkzukVgByjahyZbzsL-YUIySt8ASA3gim8uynrus3SD2mej-_s0kZ-= uzPeZd-tdHJ5q5Wc-g$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

    LAT...LON 43589480 43659542 44099632 44759641 45669632 46099591
    46339464 46019241 44669123 43809128 43589253 43629373
    43589480=20


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